Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for 2011 totalled 7, 649, 731, up by 9.24% y-o-y. The full-year figure is very much in line with BMI's estimate or 7.61 mn. In
2011, Singapore remained the main source market for tourists, providing
1, 248, 607 arrivals over the year, an increase of 10.6% y-o-y. Other
key markets were Malaysia (1, 037, 310; up 13.2%), Australia (up by
21.3% 886,495 tourists; y-o-y), China (up 12.3%), Japan (504,749;
415,088; up 2.2%) and South Korea (302,184; up 7.2%).
The
government remains committed to supporting the tourism industry, with
Mari Elka Pangestu, Minister of Tourism appointed in October 2011,
reaffirming the target of international tourist arrivals 8mn for 2012 at
a tourism conference in Jakarta. BMI shares the
Government's optimism, though after two years of very strong growth in
2010 and 2011, our core forecast is for Indonesia to consolidate recent
gains with a slightly more measured rate of tourist arrival growth, to
reach 7.9 mn tourists by the end of 2012 and just about 9mn tourists by
the end of our newly extended forecast period in 2016.
Encouragingly
for the sector, the government is taking steps to diversify away from
traditional source markets in Europe, which are suffering economic
difficulties. The Ministry of Tourism is
reportedly looking to refocus its marketing efforts to Australia, the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, China, India,
Russia and the Middle East. Arrivals from Russia were up by 21.7% in 2011, while arrivals from India at 68,878, were up by 15.8% to 168,122. BMI expects arrivals from China, India and Russia to grow strongly over the decade as disposable income levels rise.
Against
this back drop or strong growth in tourism arrivals and revenue, BMI
remains optimistic about the outlook for Indonesian tourism over the
coming years. The main risks to our current
forecasts would be a resurgence of bird flu – with the country having
reported five new fatal cases of the H5N1 disease since the start of
2012 – or a recurrence in terrorist activity aimed at tourists. Indonesian
anti-terrorist police shot dead five men in Bali in March 2012 who were
suspected of planning robberies to fund terrorist attacks on the
popular tourist island, the police said.
